Ukraine vs Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Invasion Everything you need to know

What was the process by which Ukraine was created?

The Soviet Union dissolving in 1991, was the beginning of the conclusion of the Cold War. The dissolution of the USSR was accompanied by increasing tensions in the republics that comprised it began in the late 1980s and came to an end on the 26th of December of 1991 at the time that the Supreme Soviet approved the dissolution.

Ukraine had also been a part of the Soviet Union until 1991 when it broke up. After the disintegration of Soviet Union, Ukraine gained independence in 1991. Russia tried to dominate Ukraine from then on.

Crimea Takeover in 2014

In 2014, Putin has sent troops to takeover Crimea, Russian-speaking region in Ukraine after the country’s leader Viktor Yanukovych was driven from the presidency by massive dissent. Russia also incited the Ukrainian separatist movement in its south-east region, sending in secret troops and weapons to start an unrest that escalated into a full-blown civil war.

Russia is trying to regain its influence lost in Ukraine has took over the Ukrainian territory and captured Crimea. The protestors began to seize territories in eastern Ukraine. Russia supported the separatist movement that began to take place in the east of Ukraine that eventually saw rebels pro-Russian declare the DPR as well as the LPR as independent nations, even though they had previously been largely unnoticed from the world community The fighting between the rebels, the Ukrainian military, and the Ukrainian rebels resulted in Ukraine’s loss, and then, the Russian army invaded the eastern part of Ukrain.. Over 14,000 have been killed during the conflict that has been ongoing for the years that followed and has destroyed Ukraine’s industrial core.

All of this has resulted in the relationship that exists between Russia with the West to the lowest level in the years since Cold War.

Russia also developed a maritime advantage in the region, due to the invasion and annexation Crimea.

In the end, both the US as well as the EU have committed to ensuring the security of Ukraine’s borders.

Minsk II agreement 2015

A peace agreement signed in 2015 established the demarcation line and demanded both sides to agree to concessions. Since then, fighting of a low level has been ongoing on the front lines as both parties have accused other of violating the peace agreement.

The Minsk II agreement 2015- was negotiated with France as well as Germany to end the massive battles. The 13-point deal required Ukraine to provide autonomy to regions that are part of the separatist movement and an amnesty program for rebels. Ukraine could regain control over its borders with Russia in territories occupied by rebels.

The agreement is very complex, however, as Moscow persists to claim that it is not an active participant to the conflict and therefore not obliged by the conditions.

In the 10th paragraph of the agreement in point 10, there is a demand to remove all foreign-armed formations and weapons from conflicted DPR as well as LPR. Ukraine claims that this is referring to troops from Russia however Moscow has denied previously that the existence of soldiers in the states.

In 2021, a rise at ceasefire breaches in the eastern region and the increase in Russian troop presence near Ukraine caused fears that a conflict was about to break out however tensions eased after Moscow removed the majority of its troops following maneuvers in April.

Current situation

In the early days of December 2021, US intelligence officials had determined that Russia planned to station up to 175,000 troops close to Ukraine’s borders to prepare for an invasion , which they believed could be launched in early 2022.

Kyiv had expressed concern in December Moscow had deployed more than 90,000 troops along the border of the two countries noting to be aware that “large scale escalation” was likely in January.

Furthermore, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian military stated that Russia has around 2100 military personnel living in Ukraine’s rebel-controlled eastern region and that Russian officers are the ones in charge of all post-commanding positions within rebel forces.

Moscow has previously repeatedly denied any presence by its forces in the eastern part of Ukraine without providing any information regarding the number of troops and their locations of its troops, and stating that the presence of its troops on its territory ought to not cause any concern to anyone.

In the meantime, Russia has accused Ukraine of breaking Minsk II and has criticised the West for failing to promote Ukrainian conformity.

In the midst of the controversy, Putin has ruled out a four-way conference between Ukraine, France and Germany in a statement that it’s useless due to Ukraine’s inability to sign the 2015 accord.

Moscow has also harshly criticized Russia for its strong criticism of US as well as it’s NATO allies for supplying Ukraine with weapons as well as holding joint exercises, saying that it encourages Ukrainian rebels to seek to take back the areas held by rebels through force.

Putin Putin is well-known for his deep dislike what he perceives as the Western military alliance’s shift towards the east since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 and is determined to stop Ukraine getting access to the Western alliance.

What could happen next?

Following the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the “special military operation” and following reports from the ground of gunfire and explosions echoing across Ukraine The worst-case scenario is now being realized.

The Kremlin has previously repeatedly denied the existence of any intention to attack, and made claims that were believed by a small number of people – and with justification.

In spite of the Russian president’s announcement of the day the Russian representative to the UN said the notion that Moscow was displeased with the Ukrainian people, who were not the target, only those who are that are currently in the power.

Western leaders who have come together in condemnation are now likely to increase sanctions against Putin’s government, effectively making Russia an unpopular state on the international stage.

Biden moved to assure the world that Russia would be held accountable. Biden took the initiative to assure the world community that Russia will have to answer for their conduct.

He said that it is complete responsibility of Russia alone for the death and destruction that will be caused from the attack, and the US, Allies and partners respond in a united and decisive manner.

The sanctions that were revealed by the West involving measures to prevent Russian banks and rich billionaires from doing business abroad and blocking approval by the regulators for the highly lucrative Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, have been criticized as insufficient and senior Russia officials such as Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Lavrov have dismissed them with a smile.

What Russia seeks is Zelensky to sign the Minsk agreements 2015, which aims to  bring back the pro-Russian regions back to Ukraine but could be according to one expert as a “Trojan horse” for Moscow to power and influence. The Ukrainian president would be able to accept these terms and Zelensky under constant Russian pressure is turning to the West to get help and has been talking openly about his desire to become a member of NATO.

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